According to @charliebilello, the S&P 500 has delivered roughly 10% annualized total returns over the long run, but returns deviate sharply from this trend when investor sentiment swings, citing extreme greed in 2000 and extreme fear in 2009 (source: @charliebilello). For trading, this observation supports monitoring $SPX distance from a 10% CAGR trendline and sentiment extremes as a regime gauge to calibrate entries, position sizing, and hedging in index futures and ETFs (source: @charliebilello). Cross-asset participants, including crypto traders, can reference the same sentiment-driven deviation framework as macro risk context when managing exposure and drawdown limits (source: @charliebilello). The key takeaway is that long-run averages mask path volatility, so risk management should be aligned to sentiment-driven deviations rather than assuming a smooth 10% path (source: @charliebilello).